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The EPS
SyndromeTM and How it was Discovered
With
the advent of the Enron debacle in the fall of 2001, StockDiagnostics.com commenced
a study of Enron's current and historical financial statement data. While reviewing Enron's financial data,
StockDiagnostics.com found that its "OPS Diagnosis" software revealed an anomaly
within Enron's financial statements during August 2001, when Enron stock was
still trading at over $38 per share.
To determine the significance of the discovery of this anomaly and its
application to the financial statements of other public companies, researchers
at StockDiagnostics.com initiated an in-depth study of the financial statement data
of Sunbeam Corporation, a former household name alleged to have financial
statement irregularities in 1998.
To our surprise our research proved conclusively that Sunbeam's financial
statements had the same anomalies that we found in Enron's financials. Had StockDiagnostics.com's system been
operational in 1997, Sunbeam with its stock trading at over $40 per share would
have received the same diagnosis as Enron.
Sunbeam subsequently filed for bankruptcy (in 1998) and its stock now
trades at $.05 per share.
After
the discovery of the common denominators shared by Sunbeam and Enron, the
researchers at StockDiagnostics.com did an exhaustive comparison of the historical
financial statements of both companies.
As a result, we developed numerous patent pending algorithms, formulas
and processes that can now screen a majority* of all public companies for
what StockDiagnostics.com has labeled, "The EPS Syndrome **." The term "The EPS Syndrome" was chosen
because the first criteria for the diagnosis are positive EPS (Earnings Per
Share) for the quarter in which it was diagnosed. The presence of "The EPS Syndrome"
reveals the true condition of
a company's EPS.
The StockDiagnostics.com patents pending formulas that screen
for and identify "The EPS Syndrome" are based on a combination of different
financial statement elements and ratios.
"The EPS Syndrome" is diagnosed when the difference between a public
company's "OPS" (Operational-cashflow Per Share) and its EPS (Earnings Per
Share) reaches or exceeds a mathematical threshold or tolerance level. The primary catalyst for "The EPS
Syndrome" diagnosis is negative "OPS."
Its detection triggers an extensive search for "The EPS Syndrome." In order to be a candidate for the
diagnosis of "The EPS Syndrome," a public company must also exhibit certain
financial statement criteria. "The
EPS Syndrome" can only be diagnosed when all of the historic criteria and most
recent (on diagnosis date) financial statement conditions have been met. The current and historic diagnoses of
the "The EPS Syndrome" are based upon a public company's quarterly financial
reports.
The
diagnosis of "The EPS Syndrome" means much more than a company reporting
negative "OPS" (Operational-cashflow Per Share) and positive EPS (Earnings Per
Share). Over 2000 companies report
at least one quarter per fiscal year of negative "OPS" and do not meet the criteria required
for diagnosis of "The EPS Syndrome."
"The
EPS Syndrome" cannot be diagnosed or monitored by the human eye. The diagnosis of "The EPS Syndrome" is
completely computer driven. It
requires complex computer and proprietary database technology to continually
monitor comprehensive data on public companies. StockDiagnostics.com and its team of
securities analysts and scientists devoted over six years and millions of
dollars in developing numerous patent pending algorithms, formulas and processes
to monitor all public companies on a real time basis.
"The
EPS Syndrome" is deceptive because, by definition, it can only appear in
companies that appear to be doing very well. They report positive EPS, and many have
Wall Street "Buy" recommendations.
For example, one of the many companies diagnosed with "The EPS Syndrome"
by StockDiagnostics.com is Suprema Specialties Inc. Suprema, for its fiscal year ending June
2001, reported its fifth consecutive year of record EPS at $1.41 per share and
its seventh consecutive year of record revenue at $420 million. Despite this apparent stellar
performance Suprema filed for bankruptcy in February of 2002, and its stock
subsequently plummeted from $13.00 to $ .02 per share.
One of
the common characteristics of companies diagnosed with "The EPS Syndrome" is
that the stocks of many of them trade at or close to a 5 year high within a
52-week period before or after diagnosis.
Companies diagnosed with the "The EPS Syndrome" should be continually
monitored. Operational Cashflow is
a company's financial lifeblood. A
sudden change in Operational Cashflow can drain this lifeblood, causing an
increase in debt, share dilution, share price erosion and in the more extreme
cases, bankruptcy. The "OPS"
(Operational-cashflow Per Share) of all non-financial public companies should be
monitored regularly for "The EPS Syndrome."
*
Some
companies cannot be diagnosed for "The EPS Syndrome." Financial companies such as Banks,
Brokerage firms, Insurance companies, Real Estate Investment trusts and other
types of investment companies do not generate Operational Cashflow from
Operations, but instead generate Investment Cashflow. Foreign companies such as Daimler
Chrysler and Nokia also cannot be diagnosed, as they are not required to file
quarterly financial statements.
"The EPS Syndrome" cannot be diagnosed without examining a company's
quarterly statements.
**Syndrome: a group of signs and symptoms that occur
together and characterize a particular abnormality (The Merriam Webster Dictionary)
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